Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies

This cluster includes three approaches:

• Elaborate transition scenarios of post-carbon societies, from PACT project (2008-2011)
• Participatory scenario development (for Post-Carbon societies), from POCACITO project (2014-2016)
• Exploring transition pathways to sustainable, low-carbon societies, from PATHWAYS project (2013-2016)

General introduction to approach

Given the EU’s ambitions to reduce its GHGs, and calls by European leaders for net-zero carbon emissions by 2050 , the use of pathways and scenarios is an important tool for envisioning transitions to post-carbon societies. European-funded research has used qualitative and quantitative methods, including participatory research, case studies, quantitative modelling and socio-technological analyses, among others, to support EU policy-making and reach climate goals. Furthermore, these approaches have a strong focus on cities due to their importance in addressing climate change. One approach, Participatory Scenario Development, is directly focused on post-carbon (European) cities, while the other two have a broader focus. While the approaches use participatory methods to engage a variety of stakeholders, the outputs are targeted at municipal and EU officials, and research and academic circles.

Shapes, sizes and applications

The three approaches in this cluster have similar topics, geographic coverage, methodologies and aims.

Elaborate Transition Scenarios of Post-Carbon Societies is an approach stemming from the PACT project in which three scenarios were developed to capture routes towards a post-carbon EU. The scenarios are very detail-rich and include world tensions on resources and climate, policies, behaviours and life-styles, technologies, as the main discriminating factors. This approach covers a broad spectrum of topics, but its elaborate visions of post-carbon households and lifestyles in urban spaces is especially interesting.

Participatory scenario development (for Post-Carbon societies) was born out of the POCACITO project. It engages local stakeholders in a participatory manner to create custom post-carbon transition strategies in selected cities, focusing on a sustainable economic and social model. The EU 2050 Roadmap for Post-Carbon Cities is an example of an output from this approach.

Exploring transition pathways to sustainable, low-carbon societies is an approach from PATHWAYS project that is centred on two alternative pathways, A and B, which both achieve long-term climate and biodiversity goals. Path A represents continued strength of the current global regime in the context of eco-modernization, and B represents a total regime shift and radical response strategies. Within these pathways, domains like electricity, heat & building, mobility, agro-food-systems, and multifunctional land use & biodiversity can be explored.

Post-carbon pathways and scenarios is not a new topic, yet it surely cannot be considered a mature one, due to constantly changing modelling technologies and public-perceptions of a post-carbon world. A limitation of these approaches is their predictive nature, which means that they cannot offer a silver bullet for the route to post-carbon societies. Instead they are able to offer up potential futures, and encourage policymakers to work towards them in a way that minimises social and economic costs. Regarding transferability, the methodologies in their general form are transferable to non-European contexts, and could be used to study non-European cities.

Relation to UrbanA themes: Cities, sustainability, and justice

Connection to cities

All three approaches consider the urban space as a place of importance in the transition to post-carbon societies. Therefore, many case studies are completed in European cities to create the pathways/scenarios, and devote a lot of time to urban areas in their analyses. Participatory Scenarios has cities as its main focus, and therefore, its outputs may be the most useful to city-makers.

Connection to sustainability

A wide range of sustainability issues are addressed to a high extent, and on scales ranging from local to global.

Connection to justice

This cluster does not explicitly address injustice, rather it promotes social aspects of post-carbon societies. By using participatory methods, the approaches have procedural justice. On a large scale, post-carbonism is a form of international justice for areas impacted by climate change, but this it also not a focus of the approaches.

Linking sustainability and justice

There is currently no explicit link between sustainability and justice, except for the approaches’ aspiration towards low-carbon and environmentally, socially, and economically sustainable cities. However, in future applications of the approaches, justice considerations such as measures of social inequality could be incorporated.

=Narrative of change

As global reserves of fossil fuels are diminished and GHGs are increasingly released, contributing to climate change, there is a pressing need for a large-scale shift away from carbon-based societies. Pathways & scenarios for post-carbon societies envision this future shift, and offer strategic guidance to policymakers such that cities can be more prepared for the future.

Transformative potential

Pathways and scenarios for post-carbon societies have the potential to be highly transformative since their purpose is to evaluate a major global shift away from current carbon-based systems. The degree of transformative potential depends on whether current power relations are problematised and challenged in the pathways/scenarios. The methodologies in this cluster do not clearly acknowledge issues of power with the exception of the Exploring Transition Pathways approach. Path A represents a largely-maintained status quo, where incumbent actors hold onto their power, and technological substitution occurs rather then radical system change. Therefore, the transformative potential of this cluster, in future applications of its approaches, depends on its attention towards power relations and the willingness of researchers to consider a more radical transition to post-carbonism. Pathways and scenarios risk reproducing existing power relations if they are developed by powerful actors who wish to see their positions maintained (e.g. top-level bureaucrats or industry leaders). However, approaches like Participatory Scenario Development mitigate this risk by welcoming diverse voices expressing concern over current power relations.

Summary of relevant approaches

Visions and Pathways 2040 (VP2040) [which is the research project behind the envisioning & Pathways approach] is a four-year research and engagement project funded by the Australian Cooperative Research Centre for Low Carbon Living (CRC LCL). Three universities are involved: University of Melbourne, University of NSW and Swinburne plus many industry and government partners. The project aims to develop innovations, visions and policy pathways for transforming Australian cities with the goal of rapid decarbonisation and increased resilience in the face of climate change. Through its engagement program the project will gather stakeholder views of the dynamics of change and the possible future morphology of cities – their built infrastructure, systems of provision and lifestyles.

Link to other cluster

Pathways and Scenarios for Post-Carbon societies